Bitcoinâs price has been consolidating just below $103,000, with traders eagerly awaiting comments from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). A dovish tone from the Fed could propel BTC to new highs, but risks of volatility remain.
Bitcoin Holds Above Six Figures
After briefly dipping below $100,000, Bitcoin closed its daily candle at $102,000 on Jan. 28. Over the past 24 hours, BTC has maintained its position above the psychological $100K mark, as markets prepare for the Federal Reserveâs upcoming decision on interest rates.
According to CMEâs FedWatch tool, there is a 99.5% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% during its Jan. 29 meeting. However, market participants are more focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powellâs tone during the announcement.
Key Levels to Watch: BTCâs Price Outlook
If Powellâs stance remains hawkish, Bitcoin may face increased bearish pressure, with downside targets around:
- $97,000: A key region where equal lows (EQLs) could be swept.
- $94,000: An untested 4-hour fair value gap (FVG) that could act as support.
- $88,900: A breach of this level would indicate a potential shift to a bearish trend.
Futures market analysts, such as Byzantine General, have highlighted the likelihood of BTC retesting the $94,000-$92,000 range before the FOMC decision. A move below these levels could signal further downside risk.
Trumpâs Influence on the Fed
This FOMC meeting marks the first under the Trump administration, adding a new layer of uncertainty. The 47th U.S. president recently urged the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts, citing declining oil prices as a key factor.
Some analysts believe Powell is unlikely to adopt a stricter stance than in December 2024, given recent economic data:
- Cooler Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures.
- Signs of easing inflation in the housing market.
Should the Fed adopt a dovish tone, Bitcoin could break key resistance levels, pushing prices higher in the medium term.
Potential for New All-Time Highs
On the bullish side, a 4-hour candle close above $107,000 would signal a breakout of the descending trendline resistance, confirming a new break of structure (BOS). This could lead Bitcoin to:
- $110,000: A new all-time high, initiating another price discovery phase.
- Further gains in February, with BTC entering uncharted territory.
Conclusion: Awaiting the FOMCâs Impact
While market sentiment appears bullish ahead of the FOMC meeting, traders should exercise caution. The Federal Reserve operates independently and is not obligated to consider presidential input. As of now, the market remains speculative, with Bitcoinâs next move hinging on the Fedâs outlook and comments from Powell.
